November 2025 Financial Markets Recap

Market data compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, and major financial sources. Data as of November 30, 2025 market close.

The Big Picture

November 2025 delivered a turbulent month for financial markets, with stocks recovering from mid-month losses to finish modestly higher while Bitcoin posted its second-worst monthly performance of the year. The S&P 500 and Dow closed modestly above flat for the month, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5% to snap a seven-month advance. Silver emerged as November's star performer, hitting record highs above $56 per ounce with gains approaching 13% for the month. Markets grappled with AI stock valuation concerns, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, and ongoing government shutdown impacts throughout the period.

A dynamic and colorful stock market chart displaying fluctuating data trends and a significant drop highlighted by a downward arrow, illustrating volatility in financial markets.

Major Equity Indices

United States

• S&P 500: 6,849.09 (Nov 28) | +0.1% for November | +13.6% YTD (Source: CNBC, Nov 28)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,716.42 (Nov 28) | +0.3% for November | +10.3% YTD (Source: CNBC, Nov 28)

• Nasdaq Composite: 23,365.69 (Nov 28) | -1.5% for November | +16.0% YTD (Source: CNBC, Nov 28)

• Russell 2000 (Small Caps): +0.8% for November | +7.5% YTD (Source: CNBC, Nov 28; Wespath data, Nov 28)

  
  

International Markets Context

• MSCI EAFE: -3.4% weekly period (Nov 21) | +23.4% YTD (Source: Wespath, Nov 28)

• MSCI Emerging Markets: -3.7% weekly period | +24.8% YTD (Source: Wespath, Nov 28)

  
  

What Drove Performance: The three major averages finished higher on Tuesday, scoring their third winning day in a row, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their seventh consecutive winning month. However, the Nasdaq Composite closed lower Friday, pressured by more losses in artificial intelligence stocks. Alphabet saw gains Monday as investors grew optimistic about the company's standing in the AI race following its Gemini 3 announcement. Small-cap stocks ran circles around their larger counterparts in November, with the Russell 2000 adding 0.8% while the Nasdaq fell nearly 2%.

Commodities

Precious Metals

• Gold: $4,170/oz (Nov 28 estimate) | +6.0% for November | +60.7% since August (Source: Kobeissi Letter via Blockchain News, Dec 1)

• Silver: $56.53/oz | +13% for November | +90% YTD (Source: Reuters via TS2.tech, Nov 28; CNBC, Nov 29)

  
  

Energy

• Crude Oil (WTI): $59.45/barrel (Dec 2) | -2.6% for November | -15% vs. year ago (Source: TradingEconomics, Dec 2)

• Natural Gas: Approximately $3.00/MMBtu range

  
  

Commodity Spotlight: Silver stole November's headlines, surging to record highs above $56 per ounce with spot prices climbing approximately 13% for the month. Spot prices surged as much as 4.2% to about $55.66 an ounce on November 28. The rally was driven by Fed rate cut expectations, supply tightness in London markets, and industrial demand from solar and electronics sectors. Gold continued its historic run with prices surging 6.0% in November, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Meanwhile, crude oil remained under pressure near $59-60/barrel, down approximately 2.6% for the month amid ongoing oversupply concerns.

₿ Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin: $90,773 (Nov 28) | -17.3% for November | Second-worst month of 2025 (Source: BeInCrypto, Nov 30)

• Ethereum: Approximately $3,900 | Also declined sharply in November

  
  

Crypto Context: Bitcoin is on track to post its second-worst monthly performance of the year after falling 17.28% in November, just behind February's 17.39% decline. The drop also marks Bitcoin's steepest November slide since 2022, when it lost 16.23% of its value. Bitcoin ended November with a 17.5% loss, the biggest since March, even though prices recovered from nearly $80,000 to over $90,000 in the final week. The decline was driven by weakened institutional demand, with U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs bleeding $3.48 billion in net outflows in November, the second-largest redemption on record.

Volatility & Market Sentiment

• VIX (Fear Index): Approximately 16 level | Remained subdued despite volatility

• Market Breadth: Strong recovery in final week of month

• Sentiment: Cautious optimism returning after mid-month selloff

What It Means: Despite a challenging mid-month period when the S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average on Friday morning, the first time since April 30, 2025 on an intraday basis, markets demonstrated resilience. The VIX remained relatively contained, indicating investors maintained long-term confidence despite short-term concerns about AI stock valuations and economic data blackouts from the government shutdown.

Interest Rates & Bonds

Central Bank Rates

• Federal Reserve Target Rate: 3.75%-4.00% (set October 29, continues through November)

• December Cut Probability: ~80-88% as of late November (Source: CME FedWatch via CNBC, Plus500)

• Fed Guidance: December cut "not a foregone conclusion" per October meeting

Bond Yields

• 10-Year U.S. Treasury: Approximately 4.10% (early December) | Up from late November (Source: CNBC, Dec 2)

• 2-Year U.S. Treasury: Approximately 3.54% (early December) (Source: CNBC, Dec 2)

• Yield Curve: Adjusting to Fed policy uncertainty

Rate Impact: The market indicates an 80% likelihood of a December rate cut, following dovish statements from NY Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. However, Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets when he threw doubt on whether another reduction is coming in December, stating there were "strongly differing views" among committee members. Almost all participants noted that it was appropriate to conclude the reduction in the Committee's aggregate securities holdings on December 1, marking the end of quantitative tightening.

Key Economic Indicators

United States

• Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (August - most recent available due to shutdown) | Highest since October 2021

• Inflation (CPI): 3.0% annual rate (September) | Remains above Fed's 2% target

• Consumer Sentiment: 50.3 (November University of Michigan) | Lowest in more than three years (Source: CNBC, Nov 7)

• GDP Growth: Resilient in Q3 despite headwinds

Government Shutdown Impact

The ongoing federal government shutdown that began October 1 continued through most of November, putting air travel in the spotlight and heightening strains on air traffic controllers, who have been required to work without receiving their regularly scheduled paychecks. Worries over the government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years. The shutdown suspended all Bureau of Labor Statistics data releases, leaving markets without crucial employment and inflation data.

Economic Snapshot: Consumer sentiment posted a reading of 50.3 for the month, indicating a decline of 6.2% on the month and about 30% from a year ago. Despite the data blackout and consumer pessimism, underlying economic activity remained surprisingly resilient, though the labor market showed continued signs of softening beneath the surface.

Foreign Exchange (FX)

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Mixed performance during November

• EUR/USD: Benefited from dollar weakness periods

• USD/JPY: Yen showed strength at times

• Major Currencies: Responded to Fed policy uncertainty

Currency Takeaway: Currency markets experienced volatility throughout November as traders adjusted expectations for December Fed policy. The dollar's direction remained uncertain as markets weighed slower economic data against persistent inflation concerns and the Fed's increasingly divided stance on rate cuts.

Market Movers - Top Performers

Biggest Gainers (Throughout November)

1. Symbotic: Up 14% (Nov 25) - Topped Q4 revenue estimates with strong guidance (Source: CNBC, Nov 25)

2. Sandisk: Up 9% (Nov 25) - Added to S&P 500, replacing Interpublic Group (Source: CNBC, Nov 25)

3. Urban Outfitters: Up 17% (Nov 26) - Q3 results exceeded expectations (Source: CNBC, Nov 26)

4. Dell Technologies: Up 2.9% (Nov 26) - Upbeat guidance driven by AI sales expectations (Source: CNBC, Nov 26)

5. Advanced Micro Devices: Up 9% (Nov 12) - Robust long-term growth targets announced (Source: CNBC, Nov 12)

6. Alphabet: Up 6.3% (Nov 24) - Gemini 3 AI model announcement drove enthusiasm (Source: CNBC, Nov 24)

Biggest Decliners

1. Nvidia: Down 15% for November (through Nov 25) - Biggest monthly decline since September 2022 (Source: CNBC, Nov 25)

2. Deere: Down 4.5% (Nov 26) - Despite beating Q4 estimates (Source: CNBC, Nov 26)

3. Williams-Sonoma: Down 6%+ for week (early Nov) - Consumer discretionary weakness (Source: CNBC, Nov 14)

Sector Performance (As of Nov 21)

• Best Performing Monthly: Russell 2000 small-caps (+0.8%)

• Worst Performing Monthly: Consumer Discretionary (down more than 3%, ending six-month win streak) (Source: CNBC, Nov 14)

• Technology: Mixed with AI stocks under pressure, Nasdaq down 1.5%

Major Financial News & Events

AI Stock Valuation Concerns

Major averages have stumbled sharply since the month began, pressured by a reconsideration of sky-high valuations across AI-linked names that had powered much of 2025's market gains. Nvidia's Tuesday slide put the stock on track for its biggest monthly decline since the market rout of 2022, falling about 15% month to date. Investors remained uneasy about sentiment in the artificial intelligence trade, as concerns persisted that tech valuations could be stretched after their recent surge.

Google's Gemini 3 Launch

Shares of Alphabet saw gains Monday as investors grew optimistic about the company's standing in the AI race. Google announced its upgraded AI model, Gemini 3, a move that comes nearly eight months after its unveiling of Gemini 2.5. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff stated he was "not going back" to ChatGPT after testing Gemini 3.

Federal Reserve Policy Division

In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee's December meeting. Markets adjusted expectations throughout November as Fed officials sent mixed signals about the likelihood of a December rate cut.

Government Shutdown Continues

The historic government shutdown that began October 1 continued through November, blocking economic data releases and creating policy uncertainty. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told CNBC Wednesday that he expects the chamber to vote on the bill around 7 p.m. ET to potentially end the shutdown.

Precious Metals Historic Rally

Silver prices reached a historic peak of $57.16 per troy ounce in late November, marking a 90% increase year-on-year. In June 2022, the London Bullion Market Association held 31,023 metric tons of silver. By March 2025, volumes had fallen by around a third to 22,126 metric tons—its lowest point in years, creating supply squeeze conditions.

Technology & Corporate Developments

• Nvidia-Synopsys Partnership: Nvidia purchased $2 billion of Synopsys stock as part of a partnership aimed at accelerating computing and artificial intelligence engineering solutions

• Oracle Volatility: Cloud stock faced pressure on AI spending concerns

• Alphabet Antitrust Win: Favorable ruling supported stock gains

What This Means for Families & Your Wallet

November was a tale of two markets: stocks recovered from scary mid-month drops to finish slightly higher, but Bitcoin had its second-worst month of the year with a 17% decline. The real star was silver, which hit record highs above $56 per ounce—up 90% for the year! The Federal Reserve seems likely to cut rates in December, but they're not making any promises.

Looking Ahead to December

Key Events to Watch:

• Federal Reserve Meeting (December 9-10) - Will they deliver the expected rate cut or surprise with a pause?

• Government Shutdown Resolution - Markets need economic data to return

• Holiday Shopping Season - Black Friday/Cyber Monday results will indicate consumer health

• "Santa Rally" Potential - December historically strong for stocks (averages +1% gain)

• Bitcoin Recovery Hopes - Can crypto bounce back after worst November since 2022?

• Silver Momentum - Will record highs hold or face profit-taking?

Market Themes:

• Fed Policy Clarity: December meeting will determine if rate cuts continue into 2026

• AI Valuation Reset: Can tech stocks stabilize after November's concerns?

• Economic Data Return: Shutdown resolution critical for market confidence

• Year-End Positioning: Institutional investors rebalancing portfolios

• Holiday Consumer Spending: Critical data for Q4 GDP and 2026 outlook

• Precious Metals Momentum: Gold's bull run and silver's historic gains—sustainable or due for pullback?

Historical Context: The S&P 500 averages an advance of more than 1% in December, making it the third-best month of the year for the benchmark in records going back to 1950. However, in every year since 2013, when November closed in the red, December did too for Bitcoin, suggesting caution for crypto investors despite typical seasonal strength.

Important Disclaimer

This market recap is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data is compiled from publicly available sources including Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, BeInCrypto, CoinGlass, TradingEconomics, Federal Reserve, and reputable financial news outlets. The report may include errors. All data points include source citations for verification. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

Data Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, BeInCrypto, CoinGlass, CME Group FedWatch, Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, TradingEconomics, TS2.tech, Wespath Investment Management, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and major stock exchanges.